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Category: Infrastructure

Published on Leave a comment on #TWIST 23 June 2017: Inclusive Urbanism
The newly opened pagoda in Patterson Park, Baltimore, MD, USA. By Phil! Gold

This week, I want to talk briefly about a topic that is not infrastructure, per se, but increasingly intertwines infrastructure, justice, affordability, class, and economic growth--Incusive Urbanism.

Like many terms, inclusive urbanism is dangerously close to the "destined to become meaningless" space occupied by "sustainability" and "resilience." Just like those terms, though, inclusive urbanism saves you a paragraph each time you use it in conversation after the first time. When folks say inclusive urbanism, what they generally intend is that we want to revitalize our cities, but do so in such a way that current and long-term residents have an opportunity to benefit from the revitalization. When they say inclusive urbanism, what they refer to is the challenge of achieving substantive economic transformation while not driving out current residents. When they say inclusive urbanism, what they really mean--at least sometimes--is gentrification without the side effects.

Thursday's On Point with Tom Ashbrook of WBUR, "Can Startups Share Their Big City Success?" addresses this issue. In an interview with Richard Florida, they explore this issue using the term hoarding economic growth. This is the second time this week I've heard something along these lines. The general argument is that there is substantial economic growth and urban revitalization, but these gains only contribute to growing urban inequality. If the upper middle class does not share their gains, the very real economic gains that are accumulating will be hoarded as inequality only increases.

What would you do to solve this problem? How can we keep the urban renewal gains that we are seeing in many of our cities, while empowering residents that have lived through the worst of their declines and now have nowhere to go?

I'm not sure there's a 'good' solution to this problem, but I couldn't help thinking to myself: by the time these tech companies or advanced industries move in, it is too late for many of the current residents. Isn't there a way we could anticipate and prepare the current residents for the skills and capabilities needed by modern industry? I co-teach a course with Prof. Chris Leinberger of the GW School of Business, and he says that an urban area needs an economic reason to exist. Our cities need to anticipate the economic reasons to exist in the next few decades, and begin preparing our residents--from childhood through adulthood--for these changes so that when inevitable economic shifts do occur, those residents that have weathered the storm can be rewarded.

Have you heard some compelling solutions to these problems?

Published on Leave a comment on #TWIST 16 June 2017: A dicamba murder and the urban-rural broadband divide

[Thank you for your patience after a long time away...]

Levitz and Bauerlein analyze the rural-urban broadband internet divide in "One Nation, Divisible | Rural America Is Stranded in the Dial-Up Age"

This Week in Infrastructure Systems [#TWIST]:

  • NPR's Planet Money podcast, "A Pesticide, A Pigweed And A Farmer's Murder," discusses the case of a farmer who was murdered after confronting one of his colleagues about potential dicamba drifting onto his cotton fields. You see, farmers had been using genetically engineered seeds that were resistant to Roundup, a powerful herbicide that is used to control unwanted plants including pigweed. Unfortunately, the pigweed evolved to become resistant to roundup, and some farmers sought to use dicamba as a potent alternative. Compounding this situation even more, current dicamba formulations are not approved due to potential drift onto neighbors' fields. I encourage you to listen to the podcast to learn more about this interesting case.

  • With titles like "Rural America is the New Inner City," and "Rural America is Stranded in the Dial-Up Age," the rural-urban broadband divide has re-entered American consciousness through the Wall Street Journal's coverage, among others. This is reminiscent of the time when rural electrification had not been completed. It is immensely expensive to extend electricity access to sparsely populated areas because the economics may not work out from a basic benefit-cost perspective. Nonetheless, we decided we realized that just like water, wastewater, roads, or gas/oil, electricity is a lifeline utility for modern life. We as a society decided then that urban-rural inequalities with respect to lifeline utilities are not acceptable. Today, we have to figure out how to pay for extension of broadband internet access to rural areas, just as we figured out how to pay for extension of electrification to rural areas. Fast internet is no longer a luxury, but a lifeline.

Delivering up-to-date broadband service to distant reaches of the U.S. would cost hundreds of billions of dollars, experts estimate, an expense government, industry and consumers haven’t been willing to pay.

-Levitz and Bauerlein, WSJ, 15 June 2017

Published on Leave a comment on #TWIST 22 July 2016

This week in infrastructure systems:

Self-Healing Pavements

One of my undergraduate classmates (OK, she was a couple years ahead of me) at Howard, UT-Austin's Raissa Ferron, had her research on self-healing concrete highlighted in the Cockrell School's publication, In the Lab.  Dr. Ferron is hoping that bacteria entrained in the concrete can help "heal" cracks in the concrete as they are exposed to the elements. The challenge is keeping the bacteria alive long enough to provide this resilience function.

What the Candidates are Saying

For those folks interested in understanding how the Democrats or Republican candidates will address infrastructure, especially urban infrastructure needs, Blair Levin of the Brookings Institution is doing a 3-part series that may provide some important insights. Consider the introduction to the series:

This is the first in a series of three blogs on cities, technology, the next generation of urban development, and the next administration. In this one, I’ll discuss Hillary Clinton’s recent technology plan and in particular, the significance of her endorsement of, and a willingness to invest in, a civic Internet of Things.” In the second, I will lay out why the federal government should focus on how cities are likely to be the primary government jurisdictions on the leading edge of using new technology to transform the public sphere. In the third, I will suggest five specific policies for how either a Clinton or Trump Administration could accelerate economic growth and social progress by helping cities use emerging technologies.

I have been trying to do my own informal research into what the candidates are saying about infrastructure, and it just isn't a focus right now in our domestic politics. That said, the candidates aren't silent on the issue, and I hope to provide a few additional insights from across the Web in the coming weeks.

GOP Propose Phase-out of Federal Funding for Local Transit

The Engineering News-Record reports that the GOP are proposing a plan that will phase-out federal funding for mass transit. Their position is, reportedly, that mass transit serves only a small population, and is inherently a local affair. While this is the position articulated in the party platform, and not a legislative proposal, it does strike an interesting point of view at a time where the US clearly needs additional infrastructure investment, including in the public transit of its largest cities.

Panama Canal Puts Pressure on US Ports

The Panamax expansion is now putting pressure on US East Coast port cities to catch up on the complex infrastructure upgrades that are required to fully accommodate the increased capacity and larger ships. For example, Construction Equipment Guide is reporting that the Port of Savannah can accommodate the ships, but the Savannah River is still not deep enough to accommodate the largest ships. More complications may be found at other ports where land-side connections to transportation infrastructure may not be prepared to handle the increased container volume.

Can Ports Drive Renewable Energy Development?

Ogdensburg, NY is showing how wind energy can fuel the growth of business at our ports. The increased need for equipment and facility development can spill over into jobs in the transportation and shipping industries. Specialized equipment requires upgraded rail, maritime, and ground transportation, which also require maintenance, operations, and logistics workers. NY Lt. Gov. Kathleen Hochul spent some time this week demonstrating the positive cascading effects of state investments in their infrastructure.

Published on Leave a comment on #TWIST 15 July 2016

This week (11-15 July) in infrastructure systems:

  • IEEE Spectrum highlights the "Tesla Autopilot Crash Exposing Industry Divide" concerning the development and use of self-driving cars. This story is part of IEEE Spectrum's "Cars That Think" series [RSS feed][Follow @CarsThatThink on Twitter] looking at the integrated systems of sensors, software, hardware, and human behaviors that are making the humble automobile more exciting and innovative. Tesla's Autopilot feature is an interesting example of a futuristic feature that circumvents some of the regulatory, ethical, and societal risk management challenges faced by autonomous vehicles by, at least formally, not removing the human from the loop. Well, a recent accident challenges all of this, and it remains to be seen what this means for self-driving cars going forward.
  • The US is seeking opportunities to expand the use of "living shorelines" to protect coastal areas. I wrote a paper on this topic with Professors Seth Guikema and Roshanak Nateghi, among others, but we were simply looking at the possibility of using extended life cycle cost analysis to evaluate these opportunities. In this piece, Scientific American discusses the innovative approach by the Army Corps of Engineers to streamline permits employing "living shoreline" defenses such as wetlands with sea and marsh grasses, sand dunes, mangroves, and coral reefs, instead of bulkheads, sea walls, or other grey infrastructure. This parallels important advances in stormwater management and infrastructure, and I'm curious to see how much it improves the resilience of coastal communities.
  • EPA continues work with states to improve protection from lead in drinking water. At an event on campus here at GW in February, I mentioned that Flint is just a particularly loud canary in the coal mine. There are many communities affected by lead in their drinking water, but the unique combination of political, social, and economic flashpoints made Flint a more compelling example. The EPA is trying to strengthen compliance with the current version of the Lead and Copper Rule (LCR), even while trying to repair breaches in public confidence in the law. In some instances, a utility may be in compliance with the LCR even while exposing its customers to significant public health problems. As Dr. Yanna Lambrinidou states:

    What separates these cases from Flint and DC, is that in Flint and DC the contamination was first discovered through lead poisoned children and their parents at a time when the utility met federal standards and assured everyone that the water was safe to drink. In Flint, it took 18 months for the problem to be confirmed, not by the City but by Virginia Tech; in the District it took 2.5 years for the problem to be made public, not by the water utility but by the Washington Post.

  • And in the world of sports, at the upcoming Rio Olympic Games the US Rowing Team may vanquish all its opponents except one: Rio's water. Substantial flaws in sewage infrastructure, land use, economic development, and equity have left the Rodrigo de Freitas Lagoon dirtier than many of my readers' toilets. Moreover, as Wired reports, the suits don't prevent exposure through non-dermal pathways. This may leave the athletes vulnerable to inhalation risks as viruses and other pathogens are aerosolized. This may leave athletes seeking to optimize their preparations looking for ways to strengthen their immune systems as well as their aerobic capacities.

Published on Leave a comment on #TWIST 8 July 2016

I hope you all enjoyed your 4th of July weekend as much as I did. This week in Infrastructure Systems:

  • Bloomberg will be hosting a discussion on "The Future of the Grid: Spotlight on Cybersecurity" this upcoming Tuesday, 12 July. It looks to be an exciting discussion on the challenge of modernizing both the infrastructure components and the control systems that operate them. From the website:

Last December, a coordinated cyber attack cut power to more than 100 Ukrainian cities and towns by leveraging commonly available tools and tactics against the control systems which could be used against infrastructure in every sector. This attack represents one of the first known physical impacts to critical infrastructure resulting from cyber warfare. Could a similar cyber grid attack happen in the U.S.? Join Bloomberg, in partnership with Siemens, for a breakfast conversation exploring this important issue.

“I am really concerned about the fact we are focusing solely on road expansion and highway expansion without incorporating rail and other methods,” Council Member Amanda Edwards recently told the Houston Chronicle.

Another council member, Robert Gallegos, told the paper that “it just seems like we are headed down the same road.”

  • Finally, while Brexit has rocked financial markets and political arenas, the UK electricity generation sector will also be profoundly affected. The Energy Collective's Rod Adams asks "Will an Independent UK Emphasize Nuclear Energy?" The answer seems to be YES. Europe for some time has relied on nuclear electricity to improve the environmental performance of its generation mix, but several EU nations are opposed to the use of nuclear power. Well, one of the consequences of Brexit may be an increase in the use of nuclear power in the UK:

During the 5-year spending review, the UK will devote at least £500 to innovation in energy systems focusing on systems that are “reliable, clean and cheap.” That sounded good, but the following sounded even better. “As part of that programme, we will build on the UK’s expertise in nuclear innovation. At least half of our innovation spending will go towards nuclear research and development…Our nuclear programme will include a competition to develop a small modular nuclear reactor – potentially one of the most exciting innovations in the energy sector.”

Published on Leave a comment on #TWIST 24 June 2016
This week in Infrastructure Systems:

Published on Leave a comment on #TWIST 17 June 2016

This week in Infrastructure Systems:

  • On 21-22 June here in Washington, DC, the National Academies will host a Government-University-Industry Research Roundtable (GUIRR) on Smart Cities. This looks to be an exciting event, with dynamic speakers including Carlo Ratti, Gordon England, Sokwoo Rhee, and many others. In the words of the National Academies...
    This meeting will explore the common characteristics of smart communities, the role of connectedness and sustainability in developing smart communities, and the partnerships between governments, universities, and industry that are integral to advancing smart community development.
  • Pennsylvania has been out in front thinking about how to deal with wastewater produced by hydraulic fracturing. Today, their efforts were vindicated as EPA has moved to ban the disposal of produced water at public wastewater treatment plants. The contaminants routinely found in such produced waters, including heavy metals, high concentrations of dissolved solids, and chemical additives of unknown composition often cannot be removed by the treatment technologies employed by public systems. EPA's rule, the Pretreatment Standards for the Oil and Gas Extraction Point Source Category, will force some innovative thinking around the treatment of hydraulic fracturing wastes.
  • This week, the FCC determined that broadband internet should be regulated as a public utility. This will set up some exciting discussions among all stakeholders involved, as the US has been engaged in a discussion over net neutrality, broadband as a critical infrastructure, and the appropriate levels of public involvement in provision of broadband services.
  • Finally, GovTech asks the question: "Should CFOs run American Infrastructure?" Closely related is the thought: "How to stop the endless deferred maintenance cycle." It is often difficult for local politicians to invest the requisite funds to maintaining infrastructure assets, when it can often be more sexy to break ground on a brand new project. What changes need to happen in order for us to take the full life-cycle cost of an infrastructure asset into account, when that asset can last upwards of 50 years or more? Emerging approaches to infrastructure investment include public-private partnerships (P3s), value for money (VFM), and performance-based infrastructure (PBI). All of these start at the local level, and involve a full-cost approach to assessing the value of infrastructure projects. What do you think? What kind of changes are in order?

Published on Leave a comment on New SEED paper reporting on use of Bayesian Networks to model water pipe breaks!

We have recently had our article, "Bayesian belief networks for predicting drinking water distribution system pipe breaks," accepted for publication in Reliability Engineering and System Safety. It is now available online from the publisher.

This was one of the most rewarding papers I've written, because it allowed me to learn so much more about one of my favorite modeling techniques, the Bayesian Network. Specifically, the challenge of this paper is in learning the network from the data, instead of taking the more popular approach of assuming a network structure a priori. I am still not finished investigating the use of Bayesian Networks in infrastructure data problems, but I'm excited about this first step.

The abstract is quoted below:

In this paper, we use Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to construct a knowledge model for pipe breaks in a water zone. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to model drinking water distribution system pipe breaks using BBNs. Development of expert systems such as BBNs for analyzing drinking water distribution system data is not only important for pipe break prediction, but is also a first step in preventing water loss and water quality deterioration through the application of machine learning techniques to facilitate data-based distribution system monitoring and asset management. Due to the difficulties in collecting, preparing, and managing drinking water distribution system data, most pipe break models can be classified as “statistical-physical” or “hypothesis-generating.” We develop the BBN with the hope of contributing to the “hypothesis-generating” class of models, while demonstrating the possibility that BBNs might also be used as “statistical-physical” models. Our model is learned from pipe breaks and covariate data from a mid-Atlantic United States (U.S.) drinking water distribution system network. BBN models are learned using a constraint-based method, a score-based method, and a hybrid method. Model evaluation is based on log-likelihood scoring. Sensitivity analysis using mutual information criterion is also reported. While our results indicate general agreement with prior results reported in pipe break modeling studies, they also suggest that it may be difficult to select among model alternatives. This model uncertainty may mean that more research is needed for understanding whether additional pipe break risk factors beyond age, break history, pipe material, and pipe diameter might be important for asset management planning.

Published on Leave a comment on Towards Disaster Resilient Cities: Characterizing Resilience of Infrastructure w/Expert Judgment

Today, I'm pleased to present a guest entry from SEED Ph.D. student, Vikram Rao.  This article, an advance from Risk Analysis by Stephanie Chang and colleagues, is an exciting introduction to the use of expert judgment to investigate infrastructure resilience.  Traditionally, expert elicitation is used to evaluate probabilities to assess the vulnerability of a critical system to outages of feeder systems or incidence of extreme exogenous events.  In this article, Chang and colleagues emphasize the use of expert elicitation to assess such resilience quantities as time to recover and disruption to system services over time.  I hope you enjoy this as much as I did, and thank you Vikram for your insights...

This article examines resilience of infrastructure systems using expert judgments. This is of interest since disasters such as earthquakes can cause multiple failures of infrastructure systems since they are interdependent. The approach here is to characterize system resilience, understand the relationships between interdependent systems in the context of resilience, and understand ways to improve resilience, which is of interest to risk managers. Many infrastructure systems are considered here, including water, electricity, and healthcare.

The researchers use expert judgments in a non-probabilistic approach. One goal is to elicit the service disruption levels, given as degree of impact/degree of extent, for numerous sectors. Interdependency diagrams show the dependencies between systems and provide clues as to the cascading nature of disaster events. For example, healthcare is heavily dependent on water, which tells health risk managers that it is advisable to have alternate water sources available in the event of emergency. One thing I find interesting is that there is no agreement on the extent of infrastructure reliance on water. Some studies claim that water is needed for other infrastructures to function, others do not. So the importance of water in infrastructure resilience remains to be seen.

When discussing the results, the authors bring up the fact that the representatives (experts) revise their judgments in the face of new information. Experts realize that the importance of a system is greater than originally believed, or that interdependencies exist that they had not considered. Since infrastructure systems are so interdependent and functional systems are critical for human well-being, the sharing of information between infrastructure systems is needed going forward.

One area I would like to see additional research is to explore resilience in water distribution systems, particularly looking at costs associated with disaster recovery and time to restore water distribution functionality. We could use expert judgments to examine the quantitative nature of water system resilience, for example eliciting the cumulative distribution of water functionality as a function of time (e.g. 25% water functionality restored after 1 week, 75% after 3 weeks). This is of course valuable to risk managers who are seeking to understand the nature of water system functionality in the wake of a disaster.

Published on Leave a comment on SEED Group Presentation at Concordia University Today, 11AM

Today, Dr. Francis is giving a talk titled "Two Studies in Using Graphical Model for Infrastructure Risk Models" discussing some recent peer-reviewed conference papers given at ICVRAM and PSAM11/ESREL12.  The abstract for today's talk is:

In this talk, I will discuss the use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART) for infrastructure risk modeling.  In the first case study, we focus on supporting risk models used to quantify economic risk due to damage to building stock attributable to hurricanes. The increasingly complex interaction between natural hazards and human activities requires more accurate data to describe the regional exposure to potential loss from physical damage to buildings and infrastructure. While databases contain information on the distribution and features of the building stock, infrastructure, transportation, etc., it is not unusual that portions of the information are missing from the available databases. Missing or low quality data compromise the validity of regional loss projections. Consequently, this paper uses Bayesian Belief Networks and Classification and Regression Trees to populate the missing information inside a database based on the structure of the available data. In the second case study, we use Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to construct a knowledge model for pipe breaks in a water zone.  BBN modeling is a critical step towards real-time distribution system management.  Development of expert systems for analyzing real-time data is not only important for pipe break prediction, but is also a first step in preventing water loss and water quality deterioration through the application of machine learning techniques to facilitate real-time distribution system monitoring and management.  Our model is based on pipe breaks and covariate data from a mid-Atlantic United States (U.S.) drinking water distribution system network. The expert model is learned using a conditional independence test method, a score-based method, and a hybrid method, then subjected to 10-fold cross validation based on log-likelihood scores.

This talk is hosted by Ketra Schmitt in the Center for Engineering in Society on the Faculty of Engineering and Computer Science.

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