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I came across a link posted by @urbandata on Twitter asking the question, "Does 'big data' make the scientific method obsolete?" My immediate response before clicking the link was, "I sure hope not." After reading the article, I think it may be a bit more complex than that, but stand by my original impression.

The article "The end of theory: The data deluge makes the scientific method obsolete" can be found here: "Does big data make the scientific method obsolete?"

I think the author, Chris Anderson, rightly points out that correlation must not be confused with causation, but he continues without exploring the full meaning of this statement. As a result, he builds an argument that rests on the wisdom of this traditional warning without intending it.

For example, Anderson uses Craig Venter's successful "shotgun sequencing" method to DNA sequencing as an example, yet doesn't realize that the established theory that species are uniquely identified by their genome makes this approach valid. More than that, it lends credence to the author's later observation that organisms don't need to be directly observed to learn about their characteristics. The author can make this claim for the same mechanistic reason the shotgun approach works.

This is not to say that the use of statistical and mathematical models to analyze ubiquitous data around us does not extend the scientific method in ways that we don't yet imagine. It does. However, science provides not only the foundation for the mathematical theories underlying statistical methods, but it also helps us to interpret the data streams and statistical results. Yes, we should strive to change the way science works, but we should not abdicate responsibility for inquiry and investigation to the black box.

[This post also appears on my personal blog, the fertile paradox...]

Thank you for contacting the SEED Research Group.  Let us help you engage your interests in environmental and infrastructure decision making!  Here is a short description of our research vision, also reproduced on our “Research Vision” page.  Feel free to contact by email or phone for more details!

Our overall research vision is SEED—Planted, where SEED means “Sustainable [Urban] Ecologies, Engineering, and Decision-making.”  Our research interests include:

  1. Infrastructure management, including sustainability assessment and risk analysis;
  2. Urban sustainability definition and decision making;
  3. Regulatory risk assessment and policy-focused research, especially for environmental contaminants and infrastructure systems; and,
  4. Statistical/mathematical modeling approaches to decision support.

As you may know, it is difficult to unify these themes under one umbrella.  We tend to think of ourselves as operating under the Earth Systems Engineering and Management (ESEM) paradigm for civil/environmental systems design[1].  ESEM is an approach to engineering research and education that seeks to address the irreducible complexity of tightly coupled environmental, social, and technical systems in attendant design and analysis.

To organize my research mission into tractable parts under the ESEM vision, and due to the tight coupling of infrastructure systems engineering and policy, my research group’s activities will be organized according to the “policy-as-learning” paradigm[2]:

  1. Technical Learning
  2. Conceptual Learning
  3. Social Learning

To understand a little better what these types of policy learning mean, consider the following emerging problems in infrastructure management and policy-focused environmental modeling and analysis:

Technical Learning. Technical learning involves an evolution of engineering tools supporting decisions in the context of well-defined, static policy goals.  In this area, my research group would focus primarily on innovation in the development and interpretation of statistical methods to enable real-time management of drinking water distribution systems. Recently, the National Academies has evaluated drinking water distribution system research and policy needs.  Specifically, the NRC suggests “distribution system integrity is best evaluated using on-line, real-time methods,” but that “research is needed to better understand how to analyze data from online, real-time monitors in a distribution system.”  To address this problem, I plan to employ data mining techniques and probabilistic graphical models to support the development of “intelligent” and adaptive distribution system management, focusing on distribution system rehabilitation planning.  For example, Bayesian Belief Networks may be used in conjunction with supervisory control and data acquisition methods to not only predict unintentional contaminant intrusion events (e.g., pipe breaks), but also minimize population exposure to such contaminants in real-time.  The objective of this research is to develop distribution system design and retrofitting techniques that facilitate real-time risk management.

Conceptual Learning. Conceptual learning involves the evolution of engineering tools supporting decisions in the context of changing policy goals.  Conceptual learning also involves the definition of new concepts representing the challenges of unsolved problems for which technical learning is inadequate.  The concept of “sustainability” is hotly debated, and provides a rich conceptual learning context for my research interests in infrastructure management.  In this area, my research group would focus primarily on development of decision analysis tools for evaluating the sustainability of urban infrastructure systems.  Consider for a moment the sustainability of drinking water systems.  As a postdoctoral fellow, I am currently working with Dr. Seth Guikema to identify infrastructure performance metrics for drinking water networks.  As a new faculty member my research group would start with a focus on developing software that will use evolutionary optimization algorithms to facilitate integration of financial goals, technical requirements, and ecological constraints in the design of drinking water treatment plants and distribution systems using the metrics Dr. Guikema and I will have developed.  These tools would then be extended to other urban infrastructure systems, including buildings, electricity and energy, and transportation.

Social Learning. Social learning involves the evolution of engineering tools supporting decisions in the context of not only changing policy goals, but also changing social preferences, perspectives, and capabilities.  Consequently, social learning requires that relationships between stakeholders be explicitly considered as critical components of technical and policy solutions.  In this area, my group will explore the relationships among urban infrastructure network topology, urban ecological space[3], and vulnerability to natural or man-made hazards.  My research group will employ statistical learning methods, decision analysis tools, economic input-output life cycle analysis, and agent-based modeling techniques to answer the question to answer the question “How will perceptions of global environmental problems change the sustainability of cities, especially as cybernetic[4] (e.g., smart grid) infrastructures are developed?”


[1] Allenby, B. (2005) “Earth Systems Engineering and Management.”  Environmental Science and Technology[2] Fiorino, D. (2005) The New Environmental Policy.  MIT Press, Cambridge MA.

[3] Alberti, M. (1996) “Measuring urban sustainability.”

[4] de Rosnay, J. (2000). The Symbiotic Man: A New Understanding of the Organization of Life and a Vision of the Future. McGraw Hill.