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Recently, NIST has published a new report titled "Further Development of a Conceptual Framework for Assessing Resilience at the Community Scale." I am happy to say that I was a co-author on this report with Alexis Kwasinski, Joseph Trainor, Cynthia Chen, and Francis Lavelle. It is my pleasure to share with you the abstract below:

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is sponsoring the Community Resilience Assessment Methodology (CRAM) project. The CRAM project team is working in parallel with several other NIST initiatives, including: the Community Resilience Planning Guide for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems (https://www.nist.gov/el/resilience/community-resilience- planning-guides), the Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning (http://resilience.colostate.edu/), and the Community Resilience Panel for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems (https://www.crpanel.org/). The objective of the CRAM project is to develop a foundation for assessing resilience at the community scale. For the purposes of this project, community resilience is defined as “the ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and to withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions” (PPD-21 2013), and a community is defined as “a place designated by geographical boundaries that functions under the jurisdiction of a governance structure, such as a town, city, or county” (NIST 2015). This report continues the develop the concept of community dimensions and services and expands the concept to the dimensions of sustenance, housing and shelter, relationships, and education.

For this week's TWIST (This week in infrastructure systems) post, I want to do things just a bit differently and focus on a topic that is crucial for any infrastructure system: uncertainty framing.

Of course, it is very difficult to agree on how to define uncertainty, and once it's defined, it can be difficult to select robust tools for managing the types of uncertainties we see in infrastructure systems. Since infrastructures are characterized by long life cycles, large geographic and demographic scope, and substantial interconnections within and between lifeline systems, one wonders how any problems are selected for analysis. The web of intricacies faced by analysts and policy makers can be intractable, and the ways that the unknowns influence the likelihoods of the possible consequences makes every choice high-stakes. Some professionals call these problems "wicked," and prefer to "muddle-through" them, take a garbage can approach, or just admit that optimal solutions are probably not possible and accept the best feasible option--to our knowledge--at the time. Others call these "deep uncertainties" and even wonder whether resilience analysis is more appropriate than risk analysis for infrastructure systems.

However you choose to sort all that out, this issue is of critical importance to infrastructure enthusiasts today. In the US, we face a crisis of governance, in which the public trusts neither government nor experts, the center no longer holds--making it impossible to provide legislative/political stability for public engagement over the scientific debates, and our most important issues are fraught with uncertainties that make it impossible to provide an unequivocally recommended course of action. Of course, infrastructure is impossible without both strong governance and strong science (or trans-science, if you prefer). With that in mind, two articles stood out from Water Resources Research this week:

  • Rival Framings: A Framework for Discovering how Problem Formulation Uncertainties Shape Risk Management Tradeoffs in Water Resources Systems. In this paper, Quinn et al. explore how rival problem (read: uncertainty) framing could lead to unintended consequences as a result of inherent bias in the selected formulation. Of course, this is unavoidable for even modest problems in critical infrastructure systems, and so they provide some guidance for carefully exploring the possible consequences that can be foreseen under alternative problem formulations.
  • Towards best practice framing of uncertainty in scientific publications: a review of Water Resources Research abstracts. In this paper, Guillaume et al. describe how awareness of uncertainty is addressed within WRR abstracts/papers. They develop an uncertainty framing taxonomy that is responsive to five core questions: "Is the conclusion ready to be used?"; "What limitations are there on how the conclusion can be used?"; "How certain is the author that the conclusion is true?"; "How thoroughly has the issue been examined?"; and, "Is the conclusion consistent with the reader’s prior knowledge?". Of course, as the authors acknowledge, the study of uncertainty framing is inter-disciplinary, and achieving an uncertainty framing that is responsive to these questions is an art in itself.

Uncertainty, to me, is both fearsome and beautiful. I hope these two articles, or some of the other links shared, provide some useful thoughts for managing uncertainty in your own study or management of infrastructure systems.

In view of recent events concerning Edward Snowden and some of my more recent thinking about chemicals policy in the United States, I've been trying to understand how we've reached such an uncomfortable situation in protecting Americans' Constitutional rights to privacy.  While I don't know much about privacy law, the Patriot Act, or the Constitution, I do think some ideas in chemicals regulation can help explain what's going on with the privacy debate.

I have been reading and chewing on some passages in Brickman, Jasanoff, and Ilgen's Controlling Chemicals: The Politics of Regulation in Europe and the United States, and the differences between European approaches and American approaches to chemical regulation are so striking I couldn't help but speculate whether those factors contribute to the privacy challenges we are now facing.

Since the book was written in 1985, take these thoughts with a grain of salt. However, the observation Brickman et al. made which had me thinking goes something like this: because of America's laissez faire approach to business, unparalleled levels of access to legal and administrative proceedings, and commitment to protection of individuals' rights, American chemicals policy has complexity and cost unparalleled by that in other industrialized democracies. (I try to keep these posts short, so I can't break that down further.)

The key concept in that thought making Snowden, Manning, and other issues of transparency so ironic is the commitment we make to transparency and protection of individual interests. Perhaps we are so upset and appalled by the violations of our Constitution (or at least admitted lying to Congress by NSA staff) is that we are so used to openness and privileged access afforded few of the world's other citizens to their governments. Just a thought.

So, environmental policy wonks, don't get so frustrated in the face of gridlock. Apparently, that's one of the many costs of "freedom". 😉

 

The Exxon Mobil oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico this past year brought to light one of the most unfortunate aspects of the socio-technical systems that define our society. Because of the complexity and technical sophistication of our most critical infrastructures and crucial goods and services the parties responsible for making regulatory decisions are often not in possession of the data required to make decisions about risk mitigation and management that offer the most public protection, especially in the context of disaster response and risk management.  This becomes more of a problem when the environment in which these decisions are promulgated is characterized by a lack of trust between the regulator, the regulated, and third-party beneficiaries.

In an environment where trust exists between the regulated and regulator, opportunities for mutual collaboration towards broader social goals may be more prevalent.  These opportunities may also be more likely to be identified, formulated, and implemented in ways that my promote more trust and improve overall efficiencies both regulatory and economic. But when trust is broken, the adversarial nature of the regulatory relationship can bring gridlock.

We are very familiar with the image of gridlock in a transportation network from our time stuck in traffic during rush hour in many of our North American cities, and 2011 has made us more and more acquainted with partisan gridlock in Congress, but what about regulatory gridlock?  I am stil thinking this one through but am borrowing from the idea of economic gridlock developed by Daniel Heller to construct these ideas. In my opinion, regulatory gridlock occurs when, in an adversarial arrangement, the intended consequences of a complex technical system (CTS) are well known and integrated while the undesirable consequences of a CTS’s deployment are unpredictable and fragmentary.  The adversarial relationship makes it nearly impossible to facilitate effective communication between owners of the CTS that has failed and the stakeholders who are affected.  In addition, the adversarial relationship activates a feedback loop between perceived transparency of the CTS innovation cycle within the CTS ownership and the willingness of stakeholders to accept non-zero risk.  As this feedback loop promotes increased negative perception of transparency and decreased willingness to accept risk, risk mitigation becomes less economically effective while increasing the overall costs to society of CTS management and innovation.

In 2012, as economic and political pressure to make government more efficient and promote economic recovery increases, will we see the need for navigating this potential gridlock increase?  How will we address this challenge, ensuring that the potential for disasters doesn’t divert our focus from the important work of improving our economic and social welfare through technological innovation within our lifeline infrastructures?

Thank you for contacting the SEED Research Group.  Let us help you engage your interests in environmental and infrastructure decision making!  Here is a short description of our research vision, also reproduced on our “Research Vision” page.  Feel free to contact by email or phone for more details!

Our overall research vision is SEED—Planted, where SEED means “Sustainable [Urban] Ecologies, Engineering, and Decision-making.”  Our research interests include:

  1. Infrastructure management, including sustainability assessment and risk analysis;
  2. Urban sustainability definition and decision making;
  3. Regulatory risk assessment and policy-focused research, especially for environmental contaminants and infrastructure systems; and,
  4. Statistical/mathematical modeling approaches to decision support.

As you may know, it is difficult to unify these themes under one umbrella.  We tend to think of ourselves as operating under the Earth Systems Engineering and Management (ESEM) paradigm for civil/environmental systems design[1].  ESEM is an approach to engineering research and education that seeks to address the irreducible complexity of tightly coupled environmental, social, and technical systems in attendant design and analysis.

To organize my research mission into tractable parts under the ESEM vision, and due to the tight coupling of infrastructure systems engineering and policy, my research group’s activities will be organized according to the “policy-as-learning” paradigm[2]:

  1. Technical Learning
  2. Conceptual Learning
  3. Social Learning

To understand a little better what these types of policy learning mean, consider the following emerging problems in infrastructure management and policy-focused environmental modeling and analysis:

Technical Learning. Technical learning involves an evolution of engineering tools supporting decisions in the context of well-defined, static policy goals.  In this area, my research group would focus primarily on innovation in the development and interpretation of statistical methods to enable real-time management of drinking water distribution systems. Recently, the National Academies has evaluated drinking water distribution system research and policy needs.  Specifically, the NRC suggests “distribution system integrity is best evaluated using on-line, real-time methods,” but that “research is needed to better understand how to analyze data from online, real-time monitors in a distribution system.”  To address this problem, I plan to employ data mining techniques and probabilistic graphical models to support the development of “intelligent” and adaptive distribution system management, focusing on distribution system rehabilitation planning.  For example, Bayesian Belief Networks may be used in conjunction with supervisory control and data acquisition methods to not only predict unintentional contaminant intrusion events (e.g., pipe breaks), but also minimize population exposure to such contaminants in real-time.  The objective of this research is to develop distribution system design and retrofitting techniques that facilitate real-time risk management.

Conceptual Learning. Conceptual learning involves the evolution of engineering tools supporting decisions in the context of changing policy goals.  Conceptual learning also involves the definition of new concepts representing the challenges of unsolved problems for which technical learning is inadequate.  The concept of “sustainability” is hotly debated, and provides a rich conceptual learning context for my research interests in infrastructure management.  In this area, my research group would focus primarily on development of decision analysis tools for evaluating the sustainability of urban infrastructure systems.  Consider for a moment the sustainability of drinking water systems.  As a postdoctoral fellow, I am currently working with Dr. Seth Guikema to identify infrastructure performance metrics for drinking water networks.  As a new faculty member my research group would start with a focus on developing software that will use evolutionary optimization algorithms to facilitate integration of financial goals, technical requirements, and ecological constraints in the design of drinking water treatment plants and distribution systems using the metrics Dr. Guikema and I will have developed.  These tools would then be extended to other urban infrastructure systems, including buildings, electricity and energy, and transportation.

Social Learning. Social learning involves the evolution of engineering tools supporting decisions in the context of not only changing policy goals, but also changing social preferences, perspectives, and capabilities.  Consequently, social learning requires that relationships between stakeholders be explicitly considered as critical components of technical and policy solutions.  In this area, my group will explore the relationships among urban infrastructure network topology, urban ecological space[3], and vulnerability to natural or man-made hazards.  My research group will employ statistical learning methods, decision analysis tools, economic input-output life cycle analysis, and agent-based modeling techniques to answer the question to answer the question “How will perceptions of global environmental problems change the sustainability of cities, especially as cybernetic[4] (e.g., smart grid) infrastructures are developed?”


[1] Allenby, B. (2005) “Earth Systems Engineering and Management.”  Environmental Science and Technology[2] Fiorino, D. (2005) The New Environmental Policy.  MIT Press, Cambridge MA.

[3] Alberti, M. (1996) “Measuring urban sustainability.”

[4] de Rosnay, J. (2000). The Symbiotic Man: A New Understanding of the Organization of Life and a Vision of the Future. McGraw Hill.